FXUS63 KOAX 160807
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
APRIL SHOWERS BRING MAY FLOWERS. THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUING JUST
ABOUT EVERY DAY EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AS NUMEROUS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS.
IN THE MEANTIME...LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND END BY DAYBREAK...AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS
WESTWARD TO THE RIDGE AXIS...THUS SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING
WITH JUST MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD. THE FRONT
WILL SEPARATE HIGHS IN THE 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT REACHING
THE LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH. AREAS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 GIVEN THE SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY.
AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH THE
BOUNDARY THAT STALLS NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG
THE NOSE OF THE JET...PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT IT
COULD AFFECT AREAS WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS...THEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE DELINEATED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LOWER 50S NORTH
OF THE FRONT...BUT LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH.
THE FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD JUST A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT NOT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER
GIVEN OTHER MODEL SUITES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A 5 TO 8 DEGREE BUMP
IN TEMPS ON MONDAY OVER PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE LIFT OVER THE
STATIONARY FRONT OCCURS...AS WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH IN A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW.
A STRONGER WAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER SHOT FOR HEAVIER RAIN INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 80. STILL 72 HOURS OUT OR
SO...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE HALF INCH LOOK PROBABLE DURING
THAT PERIOD. AGAIN...THE NAME APPEARS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH
PRECIP GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL SUITES...AND
THUS WAS NOT USED.
OPTED FOR A DRY PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS SHORT LIVED AS FAST
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN...WITH
A COUPLE MORE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 08Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TODAY...EVENTUALLY TAKING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND STRONG WINDS WITH IT. LIGHT RAIN AT KOMA SHOULD END EARLY...AND
MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL HANG ON DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...HOWEVER...LOOK FOR DECREASING LOW CLOUDS DURING THE 14-18Z
TIME FRAME AT ALL THREE SITES. FOR PARTS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND...BUT IT WILL REMAIN VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AS H900MB WINDS OF 25 TO 40KTS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT 15-30KTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE THE WINDS DECREASE BETWEEN 22-00Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY 00Z.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$