FXUS63 KOAX 240840
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES.
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS DECREASED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA BY AROUND 06Z...OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID CLOUDS WERE STARTING TO SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THUS
KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...NEAR GFS GUIDANCE.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 295-300K LAYER IS THE STRONGEST ACROSS
ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...SO KEPT THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THERE. INSTABILITY GENERALLY REMAINS WEAK...SO
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE SMALL. DID MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER
IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE MID
LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER AND MOISTURE DEEPER. THE 00Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF START TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF
FLOW PATTERN...BUT BOTH SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START
TO RETURN TO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
GFS WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CIGS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
OF COLORADO THROUGH 12Z COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT