FXUS63 KOAX 072001
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 PM CDT THU APR 7 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT 18Z.
MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
INITIALLY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH REGARDS TO BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIP CHANCES...THEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD
ON SUNDAY.
OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DRY CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF WESTERN TROUGH. MODELS DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH THE 12Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF TAKING A MORE NORTHERN POSITION TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER WHILE NAM HANGS IT UP ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES WARMER ON SATURDAY BASED ON A MORE NORTHERN POSITION
OF THE WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK BY SPC. SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE NEW 12Z EURO TRENDING
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUN AS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE TODAY AS
MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE PRESSING NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED OR END ON
SOUTHWEST EDGE AT KLNK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WAS ENCOUNTERING VERY DRY AIR...WHICH AIDED IN A
FEW GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. RAIN MAY HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT TO KOFK...BUT A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED
AT THAT SITE EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE RAIN AND COOLING TONIGHT
SHOULD ALLOW LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ALONG
WITH SOME FOG. SOME CIGS COULD EVEN DROP TO VLIFR...ESPECIALLY AT
KOFK. LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ERODING AT TAF SITES
BEFORE 08/18Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/CHERMOK