FXUS63 KOAX 171533
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1033 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER SOME TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA N OF LINCOLN ALTHOUGH BY 15Z THEY WERE
SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING OVER MUCH OF WRN IA AND THINNING IN SPOTS
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER....WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER A BIT LONGER SOME AREAS
AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS THEY ERODE. THUS CUT
BACK AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY ALONG/N OF I80...ALTHOUGH A BIT LESS
SO OVER WRN IA. FRONTOGENESIS IN 850-700 LAYER LIKELY TO GENERATE
DECENT LIFT INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WITH RELATIVELY LARGE DRY
LAYER NOTED ON 12Z OAX SOUNDING AT/BELOW 600 MB...IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO SATURATE DOWNWARD AND BULK OF ANY RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
TOWARD EVENING. WITH FIRST UPDATE DID NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGE
POPS...BUT SOME INCREASE/SPREAD SWD MAY BE NEEDED EARLY TONIGHT.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAD SETTLED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND CURRENTLY WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI. BEHIND IT...A BATCH OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES WERE
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK. STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG HAD ALSO DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THAT WILL LINGER
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
SEPARATE COOLER COOLER LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S
TO THE SOUTH. THIS FIRST WEAK IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...SCOOTING EAST INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THERE LIKELY WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WAIT
FOR THE NEXT WEAK WAVE TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHICH COULD BE A
CARBON COPY OF THE WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED JUST A LITTLE BIT FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY...
RESULTING IN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY PERHAPS.
MOST LIKELY WOULD SEE A DRY MORNING...BUT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT IMPULSE BEGINS TO MOVE
IN. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND HAVE BOOSTED PRECIP CHANCES INTO
THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY WITH MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH QPF
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO SET UP ALONG/NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THIS AREA.
AS THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI ON TUESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW SOME COLDER AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND SLIGHTLY
RAW DAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...AND EASTERLY BREEZY FLOW...BECOMING
NORTH THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. TUESDAY IS SETTING UP TO
DEFINITELY BE ANOTHER INDOOR DAY AND NOT GENERALLY PLEASANT TO BE
OUTSIDE. COLDER AIR IS DEFINITELY NOT AS ENTRENCHED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE AREA FRIDAY...
HOWEVER AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIP COULD
WIND DOWN AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT DONT
FEEL THERE WOULD BE ANY ACCUMULATION THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
EAST AND NORTH...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WARMUP EXPECTED. PRECIP CHANCES
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TWO
ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS.
DEWALD
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA AND STRATUS HAS EXPANDED
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD AFFECT KOFK AND KOMA WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND KOFK COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE THE STRATUS ERODES 13-15Z.
MEANWHILE...SOME MID CLOUDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED WITH GOOD
H850MB-H700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. COVERAGE HAS BEEN VARIABLE FROM
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST. LOOK FOR THE MID CLOUDS TO EXPAND DURING THE
DAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INCREASES MID LEVEL LIFT...MOISTURE
INCREASES...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THERE ARE SOME ECHOES
SHOWING UP IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS MID LEVEL LIFT OVER THE
SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA MAY RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AT KOFK AND KOMA BETWEEN 21Z-02Z.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEWALD/ZAPOTOCNY