FXUS63 KOAX 261648
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1148 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HOLD ON TO THE CLOUDS AND TWEAK
TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. ALSO LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AT 16Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA WITH
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF TH THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAD MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS ROTATING AROUND
THE STORM CIRCULATION INTO SOUTH DAKOTA WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION...POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND STRENGTHENING H85
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THE CLOUDS WILL TRY
TO BREAK UP...HOWEVER TRIGGER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE CUMULUS TO RE-DEVELOP. MENTION OF
LOW POPS IS ONLY IN THE FAR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. REINFORCING COOL
AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO WARM
UP A LITTLE IN THE SOUTH. HELD HIGHS 50 TO 55 IN THE NORTH AND
CLOSER TO 60 FOR THE SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FOR A WHILE BEFORE LIFTING EAST ON THURSDAY.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
PROVIDE GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHT TIMING ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. 00Z EURO HOLDS FRONT A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN THE 12Z RUN
INDICATED. OTHERWISE...LOOKS GENERALLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DF
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...SOME -RA/DZ WILL CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE PRECIP...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TEND TO
LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING AND SOME DRIER AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR TO EVEN VFR LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH SOME CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
JB
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY