FXUS63 KOAX 110813
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
RATHER COMPLICATED BUT INTERESTING LARGE SCALE PATTERN ADVERTISED
DURING THE FCST PD AS FLOW BECOMES BLOCKED WITH A LARGE STATIONARY
UPPER LOW ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW
HANGING OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COASTLINE. SMALLER PIECE OF ENERGY
MIGRATING OVER THE CNTRL STATES AND ACCOMPANYING SFC BOUNDARIES
THOUGH WILL DICTATE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING FOR
THE CWA. MORE SPECIFICALLY...VORT ENERGY WILL EXIT THE 4 CORNERS
REGION TODAY MAKING TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
INTO THE MID MS VLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE VORT MAX OVER THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT INTO CANADA THIS AFTN...BUT THEN DROPS
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER 48 LATE FRIDAY AFTN AND BECOMES THE DOMINATE
FEATURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. AMPLE FORCING VIA COMBINATION OF INCREASING
DPVA...DECENT 850-250MB DIFFERENTIAL DIVG WILL PHASE WITH UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES 150-200% OF NORMAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A
BIT WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THRU LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. FINALLY END POPS FRIDAY AFTN WHEN MORE STABLE AIRMASS
FILLS IN BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND WILL
ENSUE HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN STRUGGLING TO
REACH 60.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...EXCEPT IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$