FXUS63 KOAX 292025
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC POPS NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE DAKOTAS/NRN IA. HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT
THERE IS AT LEAST A SLGT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIATING
THIS EVENING WITHIN A NARROW GAP OF WEAK CAPPING EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
WEST-CENTRAL IA TO NORTH-CENTRAL KS. NEAR TERM HIRES PROGS...HRRR/4KM
WRF/ARW4/NMM4...ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. ON MONDAY
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...TORNADIC
STORMS...LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST NEB ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/DAKOTAS/UPPER
MIDWEST. IMPRESSIVE COMPOSITE PARAMETERS ADVERTISED PROMPTING SPC
TO GO WITH A MODERATE RISK IN DAY 2. DEEP SHEAR 40-60KT...0-1KM SRH
200 M2/S2...MUCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
THE CWA BY MORNING RUSH TUESDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT LIFTS THRU CNTRL
PLAINS ON WED...AND THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ON WEAKER EDGE OF CAP.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
GOING EXTENDED PD FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
OVER MT WILL LIFT THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS AND IS PROGGED TO BE CLEAR OF
THE NRN CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND GOING FCST HAS SLGT POPS
NORTH. AT THIS POINT COULD EASILY REMOVE THEM...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY
DISCOUNT ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP ALONG 850MB FRONT. SO FOR SAKE OF
ADVANCING POTENTIAL FLIP-FLOP WILL LEAVE TOKEN 20S IN. OTHERWISE
INTERESTING SFC PATTERN ON TAP BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH
GFS/ECM DEPICT A COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE NRN PLAINS...BUT THEN
STALLS OUT WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER
THE SERN STATES...INCREASES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND BRINGS THE
ADVANCING BNDRY TO A HALT ON FRIDAY. GFS AND ECM THEN DIFFER ON BNDRY
POSITIONING. GFS SHOWS FRONT LIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH WHILE THE
ECM STALLS IT OUT ALONG THE NEB/KS...IA/MO BORDER. THEREFORE HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP REST OF EXTENDED PDS DRY CONSIDERING HIGH MLCINH/NO
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING THRU TO WEAKEN CAP/UNCERTAINTY
HOW SFC BNDRY WILL MEANDER OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO PRESS NORTH AND AT 29/19Z WAS JUST
SOUTH OF A LNK-PMV LINE. CIGS SOUTH OF FRONT HAVE IMPROVED TO HIGH
END OF MVFR OR JUST ABOVE WHILE FARTHER NW CIGS HAD DROPPED INTO IFR
OR LIFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG. WITH
LOW LVL JET INCREASING TONIGHT EXPECT FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING NWD
AND MIXING FORECAST SOUTH OF FRONT SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM
REFORMING AND ANY CIGS LIKELY ABOVE MVFR RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS
IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT REACH KOFK UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP MEMORIAL DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY
MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WERE FORECAST TO REMAIN
SW OR NE OF TAF SITES.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$