FXUS63 KOAX 250750
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011
.DISCUSSION...
COUPLE OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING. FIRST BEING LACK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS EXPECTED EARLIER WITH CURRENT QPF WAY OVERDONE. ONE AREA OF
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AT 07Z AND UNLESS
THESE STORMS EXPAND OR INTENSFY LOOKS LIKE WE MAY MISS THE HEAVY
RAIN. WILL LET FF WATCH RIDE FOR NOW BUT IF NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL LIKELY PULL WATCH BEFORE 6AM.
SECOND ISSUE IS WIND. BEST AREA FOR STRONGER WINDS TODAY APPEAR TO
BE MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR WINDS
MEETING CRITERIA. HAVE INCLUDED PARTS OF NERN NEBRASKA IN A WIND
ADVY LATER THIS MORNING BUT NO OTHER PART OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING OVER WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT
WITH LATEST RUC TAKING IT ON A WOBBLY TRACK INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH 18Z. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUINDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT CLEARING ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA.
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH NEXT WAVE COMING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BUILD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THEN RETROGRADE IT TO THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS NEXT WAVE
MOVES DOWN OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. STARTING TO LOOK LIKE SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AFFECT WILL BE MINIMAL AFTER 12Z.
MVFR CIGS BETWEEN FL010 AND FL020 WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
00Z...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY 06Z THURSDAY.
VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT BOTH
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP TO IFR IN PRECIPITATION. NORTHEAST WINDS
EARLY WILL BECOME NORTH BY 18Z AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE THROUGH 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ011-012-016>018-030>032-042.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR IAZ043-055-069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DERGAN