FXUS63 KOAX 271714
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011
.UPDATE...
LOWERED MOST MAX TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON POPS...MAINLY NERN ZONES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON WEST EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD...APPEARS
MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 60 TODAY. THUS ISSUED
SECOND UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES. ALSO WITH 16Z SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A WAVE EXTENDING SW TO JUST WEST OF ONL...AND
SOME VERY RECENT PCPN DEVELOPMENT JUST NW OF OLU...INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES MADE IN EARLIER MORNING UPDATE STILL REASONABLE
NERN ZONES. FARTHER S/SW IT BECOMES A LITTLE LESS APPARENT WHETHER
ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP THUS LEFT IN SLGT CHCS SW OF OMAHA.
CHERMOK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2011/
DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWED STRONG ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE PACIFIC
EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES. 500 MB 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE 50-100
METERS FROM MONTANA INTO WYOMING AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z.
300 MB CHART LAST EVENING SHOWED A JET MAX OF AROUND 145 KNOTS PUNCHING
EAST NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. 850 MB MOISTURE LAST EVENING
WAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN OUR AREA...BUT SHOULD BE INCREASING TODAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT/TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED PRECIPITATION
MOVING TOWARD EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SO HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THERE. EXPECT
THAT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT SOME LOWER 70S APPEAR
POSSIBLE ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS MAIN SURFACE LOW
ORGANIZES OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. INITIALLY FAST ZONAL MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE PLAINS AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE EASY TO PIN DOWN DUE TO THE
SMALL SCALE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO FRONTAL LOCATIONS AND
STRENGTH OF FORCING...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. TENDED TO FAVOR
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THINGS WILL TRANSITION TO A GENERALLY WARMER
AND DRIER PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE 500 MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND RETROGRADES WEST TO THE PLAINS.
MILLER
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
AS SURFACE INVERTED TROF MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL MIGRATE EAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY
ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROF.
HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL STILL LACK DEEP RICH MOISTURE...SO
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS...WE STILL
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THERE MAY BE BRIEF EXCEPTIONS IN
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION...WE ARE ONLY FORECASTING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN AT SITES KOMA AND KLNK MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. KOFK WILL SEE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF RAIN AND
PERHAPS A FEW HOURS EARLIER AS WELL.
NIETFELD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$