FXUS63 KOAX 192113
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
413 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2011
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIRES WRF-NMM/RUC13/GFSLAMP ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PROBABILITY
OF CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPING HIGH TONIGHT ALONG A SLOW LIFTING WARM
FRONT THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. APPEARS THAT 300K-305K UPGLIDE/MOIST ADV
WILL INCREASE THRU THE EVENING HOURS WITH BOTH NAM/GFS ADVERTISING
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 175% OF NORM AND KI AROUND 35. MAX
OMEGA FIELDS PER BOTH NAM/GFS BULLS-EYE THE CWA...THUS HAVE DECIDED
TO BUMP POPS TO 90% AND INCREASE 6HR QPF AMOUNTS. HEAVY RAIN A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN JUST
COMBINATION OF DEEP SHEAR/MUCAPE SVR POTENTIAL LOOKS PROMISING
TONIGHT AHEAD/ALONG SLOW LIFTING WARM FRONT...MAINLY FOR THE SRN CWA.
POTENTIAL FOR SVR DEVELOPMENT AS WELL FRIDAY AFTN...BUT THINK MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOUND FARTHER SOUTH. MEANWHILE SFC BNDRY BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE SWEEPING EAST ON
SATURDAY. LLVL MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY NWD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
SAT AFTN.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AND HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN PLACE
MAJORITY OF EXTENDED PDS...AND WITH LARGE SCALE FLOW RATHER
COMPLICATED HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALONG WITH HPC. PCPN CHANCES
ESSENTIALLY FOCUSED AROUND WEAKENING UPPER CLOSED LOW MIGRATING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST DRAGGING A CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO
THE LOWER 48. BOTH GFS/ECM DO AGREE THIS AIRMASS WILL PENETRATE QUITE
FAR TO THE SOUTH AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
OH VLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RESULT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE WED/THUR
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
GENERALLY VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z OVER MOST OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. KOFK WILL SEE A BRIEF
SHOWER AND ACCOMPANYING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND KLNK COULD SEE AN MVFR
CIG BEFORE 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH...LOWERING CIGS INTO THE FL015-025 RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 06Z. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS...AND HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHING NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$