FXUS63 KOAX 311946
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. AS THIS
SHIFTS EAST...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTH THROUGH KANSAS
WILL BECOME THE NEW WEATHER FOCUS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A VERY SUBTLE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS WILL MAINTAIN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE THAT GREAT...THUS ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
PUSHING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE FORWARD SPEED. TEMPS
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT
BACK TO THE LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH.
ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. COULD BE A HEALTHY CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH TILL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SREF IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE
FRONT...BUT SEEMS MIGHT BE A TAD TOO FAST GIVEN OTHER MODEL SUITES.
MODELS ARE ALSO NOT GENERATING MUCH PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH CAP TAKING HOLD ONCE AGAIN...BUT WOULD PROBABLY BECOME
ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION SHOULD STALL FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER REGION. THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERLY JET INTERACTS WITH
THE FRONT...THEN EVENTUALLY PUSHING IT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...THEN NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND SHOULD BE IN THE 80S. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS
MORE RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WHEREAS THE GFS MODEL REMAINS
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST SMALLER CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OR NO CHANCE AT ALL. CANT RULE IT OUT AT THIS
POINT...THUS INCLUDED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO...BUT INCREASED
TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.
DEWALD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT COORDINATION TODAY AMONG VARYING FEDERAL...STATE AND
LOCAL AGENCIES...ALONG WITH A FEW MEDIA OUTLETS... REGARDING THE
ONGOING MISSOURI RIVER FLOODING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT MONTH. POTENTIAL FLOOD INUNDATION MAPS HAVE ALSO BEEN PRODUCED
BY THE CORP OF ENGINEERS LATE YESTERDAY AS WELL WHICH WE ARE JUST
STARTING TO PROCESS. OTHERWISE...FLOWS OUT OF GAVINS POINT DAM
REACHED 78 KCFS TODAY...WHICH DOES BREAK THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD
RELEASE THAT DATES BACK TO 1997. GAVINS POINT RELEASE FORECAST IS
SET TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 150 KCFS THROUGH MID JUNE...AND BASED
ON LATEST LONG TERM CORP PROJECTIONS...COULD RESULT IN MISSOURI
RIVER STAGE INCREASES TO POTENTIALLY 40 TO 42 FEET AT DECATUR...30
TO 32 FEET AT BLAIR...34 TO 36 FEET AT OMAHA...ABOVE 26 FEET AT
NEBRASKA CITY...ABOVE 43 FEET AT BROWNVILLE...AND ABOVE 25.5 FEET
AT RULO. THESE STAGES ASSUME A PEAK OF 150 KCFS OUTFLOW FROM
GAVINS POINT DAM...BASED ON NORMAL PRECIPITATION. TRAVEL TIME
WOULD BE ABOUT 3 DAYS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR FETCH OF THE
RIVER. PERIODS OF STRONG OR HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS...OR LEVEE
BREACHES WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON EVENTUAL STAGES. THESE
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUALLY BE REVISED AS CORP RELEASE SCHEDULES
ARE ISSUED BASED ON CURRENT AND UPBASIN RESERVOIR CONDITIONS.
THERE ALSO WILL BE A NEWS STORY ON OUR WEB SITE ABOUT MISSOURI
RIVER STAGE RECORDS AT VARIOUS OBSERVING POINTS AS WELL.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 12Z ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING DURING THE MORNING.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$