FXUS63 KOAX 052030
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
CU FIELD EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL BE TURNING WARMER AS A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN CONCERNS
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THAT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY AND AS LOW PRESSURE PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE. SO CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN FRIDAY. 850 MB MOISTURE DOES START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WILL INCLUDE A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHER IN KANSAS
AND MISSOURI. HIGHER MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO OVER
10 DEGREES CELSIUS) MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY. LIFTED INDICES REACH AS LOW
AS -7 OR SO ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER BY LATE SUNDAY. 850 MB COMPUTED
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG AT THAT TIME. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY AND MID PART OF THE
WEEK...AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE TROUGH AND INTO OUR AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
DETAILS BECOME LESS CLEAR BY MID WEEK DUE TO MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN COOLING BACK INTO MOSTLY
70S BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEM FAIRLY HIGH
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH 23Z AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
AFTER 14Z ON FRIDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM....MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT