FXUS63 KOAX 130815
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.
TAIL END OF MCS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAS RIDING THE
NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THIS MORNING...AND HAS RECENTLY
EXHIBITED A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO MODEST LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY ROLL THROUGH WEST CENTRAL IOWA AS LOW LEVEL
JET MAINTAINS CONVECTION THIS MORNING. TO THE SOUTH...MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WAS TRYING TO SPARK CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS AS MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH 00Z MODELS NO DIFFERENT. 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS FEEDING
THIS AREA...SO COULD STILL SEE SOME STORMS ROLL THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO UPPER WAVE RIDING INTO WESTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES THIS WAVE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN
KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 UNDER COOLING MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG WITH NEARLY 40 KTS OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR. INHIBITION SHOULD ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL ENSUE AS SOUTHWEST 40KT LOW LEVEL JET RIDES OVER
FRONTAL ZONE. SPC PAINTS THIS PART OF OUR CWA IN A 5 PERCENT TORNADO
RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT BOUNDARY WILL NOSE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
DURING THE EVENING. WILL OUTLINE THIS POSSIBILITY IN OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER
ANOTHER AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AFTER
MONDAY EVENING CONVECTION...BUT COOL TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST SCATTERED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. THESE WILL
AGAIN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING.
A DRY PERIOD STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES STORM TRACK AWAY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
ALL OF THE AREA THEN.
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT WARM
ADVECTION SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS MURKY WITH MODELS SHOWING
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TO VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA ARE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT AND HAVE
BEEN PUSHING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS HAVE
BEEN TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH
THE BETTER LIFT IS NORTH OF THE AREA...PROPAGATION VECTORS HAVE A
SOUTHEAST THEN A EAST MOVEMENT TO THEM AND WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT
THE KOFK TAF THIS MORNING. ACCAS CLOUDS WERE NOTED ON SATELLITE FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI WITH
A GRADIENT IN H85 TEMPS IN THIS AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FCST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...WILL NEED TO MONITOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS DO NOT
HAVE THEM GETTING INTO KLNK/KOMA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING THUS MVFR CIGS INCLUDED THROUGH THE MORNING.
THESE MAY LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RETURN TO MVFR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE HEATING AND FORCING THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY DO NOT
HAVE IN CURRENT FCST...HOWEVER WILL LOOK AT PROB30 WITH NEXT
ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DURING THE PERIOD GENERALLY FM 8
TO 15KTS.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$