FXUS63 KOAX 260800
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS FAR EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA COULD ALSO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED SOME SMALL POPS MAINLY EASTERN NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE...
STRATUS AND AND FOG CONTINUED TO EITHER ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST OR
DEVELOP...THUS WILL HAVE THAT TO CONTEND WITH EARLY THIS MORNING
TOO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE.
CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY STRENGTHENING FROM THE WEAK
IMPULSE THAT IS MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LIFT OVER A WARM FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND MISSOURI. A RENEWED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL...IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS...INCREASED THE POPS TO ABOUT 60
PERCENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE TWO
DIFFERENT FORCING MECHANISMS THIS AFTERNOON . SEVERE WEATHER IS
CERTAINLY A CONCERN AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KTS...
COMBINED WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT
IN QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY...CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH WIND AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. 0-1KM
SHEAR OF 15-20KTS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A SMALL TORNADO CONCERN
AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.
WHATEVER DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT ONE MORE MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA TIED TO THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT...THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH
MAINLY A WIND AND HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY NOT FORECASTING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL JUST YET...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVY RAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS.
COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE
COLD FRONT DOES SWEEP SOUTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY...PRECIP SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA ALTOGETHER BY LUNCHTIME MONDAY WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
FOR MID WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A HOT RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS GET QUITE HOT MID WEEK...HEADING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT. DID BUMP TEMPS UP DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A COUPLE SPOTS HIT 100 IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MAIN AVN CONCERN IS AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER ERN NEB...AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS. FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 20Z SHOULD KICK OFF TSRA
ACTIVITY...AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO TAP INTO EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. PROB30 GROUPS IN CURRENT
SET OF TAFS WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH TEMPO GROUPS WITH NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE AT 12Z THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...WRN EDGE OF IFR
CONDITIONS AS OF 07Z WAS HUGGING THE MO RIVER VALLEY ON THE NEB
SIDE...THUS AFFECTING CONDITIONS KOMA. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THOUGH TO VFR BY ABOUT 15Z AT KOMA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALL SITES UNTIL CONVECTION INITIATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
PRETTY MUCH THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$