FXUS63 KOAX 292004
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAD SPREAD NORTH INTO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
WARM SIDE.
FOBERT
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
VERY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE
LONGER TERM. MOST SENSIBLE WX ELEMENTS OVER THE NEXT 6 DAYS WILL
DEPEND ON THE MEAN SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. INITIALLY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TOP
THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO SOME FLATTENING ON FRIDAY.
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY HOT AND HUMID
DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100.
DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN CWA MAY TEND TO MIX OUT BUT THIS WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR ACTUAL WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...SO ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA WILL BE DEALING WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109
ON THURS. THUS WE WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURS AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA. GIVEN THE VERY
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM WITH THIS BOUNDARY...OR FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP OFF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND CLIP OUR NORTHWEST CWA BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS
WILL KEEP THE SCHC POPS IN THERE FOR THURS NIGHT.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRI...BUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ANOTHER VERY HOT AND HUMID
DAY IS IN STORE. SOME OF THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY NEED ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE
BOUNDARY AND THUS WILL HOLD OFF EXTENDING THE CURRENT ADVISORY
INTO FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. AGAIN SOME VERY SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS OF
AN ISO TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA ON
FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE CURRENT POPS. THE BOUNDARY THEN
STALLS ON SATURDAY WITH THE CWA IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS AND
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT THEN RETURNS NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE OUR BEST SHOT AT PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HAVE INCREASED
POPS INTO THE MID CHC RANGE ON SAT NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
CLOSEST TO THE 850 MB BOUNDARY. THE FRONT THEN MOVES NORTH OF THE
FA ON SUN AND THE PERIOD SUN THROUGH MON SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AGAIN BUILDING NORTH. WE HAVE INCREASED HIGHS
SUN/MON AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY ON TUES ALLOWING THE FRONT TO
SLIP BACK INTO THE FA AND HAVE A SCHC OF POPS AT THIS TIME WITH
THE FRONT.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP DURING THE NIGHT AND LIMIT ANY FOG OR HAZE
DEVELOPMENT...OTHERWISE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$