FXUS63 KOAX 202001
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VOLATILE SITUATION SETTING UP
OR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE UNFOLDS.
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT SURGING NORTHWARD WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL ALSO
BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AND A TORNADO WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP OVER SATURATED GROUND WHERE LAST NIGHT/S STORMS PRODUCED 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM COLUMBUS TO NORTH OF FREMONT TO HARLAN.
THUS WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE COUNTIES WHERE 1HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS ONE HALF INCH.
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE A SECONDARY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AN INITIAL ELEVATED BAND IS ALREADY
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT THIS IS ALSO LIKELY
ENCOUNTERING A VERY STRONG AS SUGGESTED BY 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM
KOAX/KTWX. REALLY...THIS WILL PROBABLY ACTUALLY HELP TO ERODE THE
CAP. HOWEVER...THIS AREA SHOULD TEND TO REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE REAL DRYLINE/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST HERE DUE TO BACKED SURFACE WINDS AND EXTREME
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH AN AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
NEBRASKA CITY EASTWARD TO CLARINDA LAST NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE THESE AREAS
AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AS LOW AS AN 1 INCH.
IN BETWEEN...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE OTHER COUNTIES UP/DOWN THE
MISSOURI RIVER IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...EVEN THOUGH ARE AREAS
THAT DID NOT RECEIVE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT...WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE THE OMAHA AND COUNCIL BLUFFS METRO AREAS BECAUSE OF
URBANIZATION SENSITIVITIES AND PROXIMITY TO THE FLOODED MISSOURI
RIVER...BUT ALSO THE BROWNVILLE AREA BECAUSE OF LOCAL LEVEE ISSUES.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE LOW MOVES TO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY
AND WE MOVE TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATES...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT NOT MUCH A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THIS DOES EVENTUALLY PULL EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THEIR FORWARD SPEEDS. STILL THINK
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EXIST ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
WEDNESDAY THOUGH...THUS FOLLOWING SOME OF THE SLOWER MODEL
SOLUTIONS. STILL COOL ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
DRY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT
UNFORTUNATELY...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH A POSSIBLE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THIS WILL PROVIDE
NEARLY A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL TAF SITES.
COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP AT KLNK BY 22Z...AND KOMA BY 00Z...AT KOFK
ANY TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT KOFK THROUGH THE NIGHT BEYOND ABOUT 03Z
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS... AND PROBABLY END AT KLNK BEFORE 06Z AND
KOMA BEFORE 08Z. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KOMA/KLNK
AT TIMES WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OCCURRING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ015-NEZ033-034-
042>045-050>053-067-068-091.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
DEWALD