FXUS63 KOAX 142141
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
441 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
BRIEF DISC...BUSY WITH TOR WATCH AND HYDRO ISSUES. ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTN HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES AROUND 4000J/KG IN THE
VICINITY OF SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN NERN KS. INGREDIENTS
AVAILABLE FOR TORNADIC STORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST IA
AND MOST OF NRN MO. PORTIONS OF OUR IA CWA DOES FALL WITHIN THE AREA
OF CONCERN WITH COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY. QUICK LOOK AT
UPDATED RUC13 COMPOSITE PARAMETERS THOUGH...FACTORING IN EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...SUGGESTING BEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE
FOUND IN NW MO. OTHERWISE HAVE POPS IN FCST FROM LATE WED NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A MEANDERING SFC BNDRY OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND SERIES OF IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON THE WHOLE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE DUE TO GFS/CMC/ECM SURFACE
FEATURES LACKING AGREEMENT REGARDING WHERE/WHEN SFC LOWS DEEPEN AND
MOVE...AS WELL AS MOVEMENT OF ATTENDANT FRONTS. WILL THEREFORE TRY
TO USE SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 3 AND PLAN ON FOCUSING
POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PDS...AND ONLY SLGT DAYTIME POPS. FRIDAY
NIGHT...VORT MAX OVER MT LIFTING INTO CANADA APPEARS TO SHOVE A COLD
FRONT THRU THE NRN PLAINS WITH PCPN DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHERE
MOISTURE CONTENT IS HIGHEST(PW 180% OF NORM). ON SATURDAY
BROAD LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH
SEVERAL IMPULSES NEAR THE 4 CORNERS EJECTING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. SFC LOW DEEPENS IN ERN CO BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG DEVELOPING SFC BNDRY EXTENDING THRU
NRN KS INTO IA. FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED SW-NE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
LIKELY HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT SFC BNDRY MOVEMENT THRU EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHEN WRN TROF AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. EXPECT THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY LATE MONDAY AFTN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...BOTH GFS AND ECM ADVERTISE POST-
FRONTAL PCPN MONDAY NIGHT. SUPPOSE THAT COMBINATION OF DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING VORT MAX AND MID LVL WAA PROBABLY ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE SLGT POPS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...DAY 7(TUESDAY) COLD FRONT
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AFTN HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
LOW STRATUS YIELDING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE KOFK AND KLNK WILL BE
SLOWER TO RETURN TO VFR THAN KOMA. EXPECT ALL THREE SITES TO BECOME
VFR AROUND 20/21Z. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN CONTINUED
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE WESTERLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
FOLTZ
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$