FXUS63 KOAX 102024
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT
TAKING THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA WITH IT. WILL INCLUDE A VERY EARLY EVENING SCHC POP IN THE FAR
SE FOR THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 7
PM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
COOL NIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL...LIGHT WINDS AND A LACK OF SURFACE
MIXING TODAY WE MAY SEE SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
WILL INCLUDE A PATCHY FOG MENTION AT THIS TIME OVER A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RD
OF THE FA. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS/FOG AND SOME FAIRLY
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...DID INCREASE GOING LOWS OVER
THE EASTERN 2/3RD FOR TONIGHT TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING A SHORT PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. MODELS INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH GOOD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRICKY WITH EXTENT AND
DURATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN SUNDAY AND SURFACE WARM FRONT SETTING
UP AGAIN NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE
12Z ECMWF SHOWING MUCH STRONGER WAVE ENERGY THAN THE GFS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE.
PERIODS OF STORMS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN
AND WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
IFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT ALL 3 TAF LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRIER AIR OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS WORKING EAST. THIS SHOULD START TO ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO WORK INTO THE TAF SITES BY LATE AFTN AT OFK...AND
EARLY TO MID EVENING AT OMA/LNK. WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...IT APPEARS
THAT STRATUS AND SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
OMA/LNK AFTER 08Z. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT 15Z AT ALL SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$
FOBERT/BOUSTEAD