FXUS63 KOAX 302004
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
304 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
TONIGHT...AREA WILL REMAIN IN WARM SECTOR AS COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WYOMING AT 18Z IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
FOBERT
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVER-ALL FORECAST REASONING...AND FOR THE MOST
PART THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT AND ARE IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
/CURRENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN/ WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR I-80 BY 00Z SAT. THUS
HAVE INCREASED GOING HIGHS OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. DEWPOINTS ON
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A TENDENCY TO MIX OUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR TO
THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100-105...AND THUS WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME INTO FRIDAY AND LET IT EXPIRE AT 00Z TONIGHT. MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON IN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH
FAVORABLE Q-G FORCING AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. IT
APPEARS THE GFS IS BEING TO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FA. MODIFYING GFS
POINT SOUNDINGS FOR REASONABLE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES YIELDS A
STRONGER CAP AND THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SCHC POP ALONG THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY EVENING ENDING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SENARIO
IS BETTER REPRESENTED ON THE NAM /ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL MIXING ON
THE NAM IS OVERDONE/. ANY ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING.
THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A
DRY DAY IN STORE FOR THE FA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN START TO RETURN
NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVISORY AND MASS CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND HAVE AGAIN INCREASED
GOING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WE LOWERED HIGHS ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH THE CONCERN OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. WITH THE 850 MB FRONT WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A
DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY. THE FRONT STILL THEN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RETURN SOUTH ON
TUES/WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPS AND FLATTENS THE MEAN
SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SCHC POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE MOISTURE AND
STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
&&
$$