FXUS63 KOAX 020833
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
333 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WAS NOT ABLE TO GENERATE ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. A FEW VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUED EARLY
THIS MORNING CLOSER TO WHAT SEEMED TO BE THE 850 MB FRONT. THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WILL PROBABLY BE OUT OF THE
AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD DECREASED ABOUT AS
EXPECTED AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY WITH
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR
FOR TODAY AND HAVE NO STRONG REASON TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST AND DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OCCURS IN THE 310-315 KELVIN
LAYER. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL BRING AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DETAILS OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SETUP IS NOT CLEAR...BUT WILL GENERALLY GO WITH
AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.30 AND HAVE CHANCES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS UP TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S ALL ZONES.
ON SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
COOLER NAM MOS. FOR NOW...WENT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 82 TO 88
DEGREES. THIS MAY BE SOME OPTIMISTIC...BUT EXPECT SOME THINNING OF
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DECIDED
TO JUST RAISE THEM A BIT (TO AROUND 50 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A 500 MB RIDGE SHOULD
BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT
TIMES...SOME ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. STRENGTH AND SPEED OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE NOT CLEAR...BUT MAINTAINED A CHANCE OR SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND 90 TO 95. WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...SINCE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW THE 00Z
GFS SEEMED BETTER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STORMS. DID INCLUDE A CB/TSRA MENTION IN KLNK TAF EARLY ON AS
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY RE-GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES...ALTHOUGH THE LINE SHOULD MAINLY DRIFT SOUTH OF KLNK.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG THRU 14Z. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY WITH RELATIVELY DRIER...COOLER WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT FAR AWAY AND AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MAY NEED TO ADD A
PROB30 FOR TSRA AT KOFK BEFORE 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY