FXUS63 KOAX 111955
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE SCALE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
PATTERN TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO UP INTO
UTAH...COLORADO AND WYOMING. SEVERAL IMPULSES WERE EMBEDDED IN
THIS MOIST FLOW. ONE WAS TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA AND WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER NEAR THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. YET ANOTHER WAS MOVING NORTHWEST IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. BUT MAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS DEVELOP WEST OF THE
AREA...ORGANIZE AND THEN TRACK INTO THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE AMOUNTS MAY REACH OVER TWO
INCHES. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 60S NORTH BUT RANGE TO LOWER
70S SOUTH.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK
FOR MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS SERIES OF NOCTURNAL MCS FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE
SOMEWHAT AND OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION WAHES OUT THE WARM FRONT
THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST BORDER OF NEBRASKA.
RESULT WILL BE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.
WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH EXPIRATION THIS EVENING BUT CANCEL NORTH HALF PRIOR TO
ISSUANCE.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH WITH THE
RIDGE LEAVING AREA DRY BUT HUMID.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS AT KOFK...WHERE DID MENTION
TSRA IN A TEMPO GROUP. SOME CHANCE AT KLNK AT KOMA...BUT THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY SO ONLY WENT WITH PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA WITH A CB
CLOUD GROUP. SOME FOG POSSIBLE 09Z TO 14Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ068-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ090-091.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER