FXUS63 KOAX 210810
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011
.DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AT 07Z. LATEST MODELS GENERALLY STALL THE
FRONT TODAY FROM SOUTHERN IOWA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TRYING TO FIGURE WHERE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF FRONT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS AREA REMAINS ON
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT.
WARM FRONT THEN REDEVELOPS NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY
PLACING AREA BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
NO CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
WITH AREA REMAINING ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FASTER UPPER FLOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST
CHALLENGE...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
AND THEN PROBABLY STALLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LOWER
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND VISIBILITIES DOWN INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER