FXUS63 KOAX 230850
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
350 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING ALONG THE AXIS OF A VERY WEAK SFC BOUNDARY.
VEERED 25-30KT LLVL JET IS AIDING THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING.
A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME 100S LIKELY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA AND LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES NEEDED.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOW LONG THE REGION REMAINS CAPPED
IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. HAD LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SO WL CONTINUE ON THIS PATH. FRONT SHOULD
PUSH THRU ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS GOING ALONG NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST. WL GIVE OUR WESTERN COUNTIES A SMALL POP TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MID WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT KOMA/KLNK/KOFK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO 15Z IN THE
VICINITY OF KOMA. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR AFTER 00Z IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KOFK/KOMA/KLNK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
KERN/SMITH