FXUS63 KOAX 030902
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
402 AM CDT WED AUG 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS SATURDAY/NIGHT AND MONDAY/NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE CWA IS CLEAR OF CLOUDS EXCEPT THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA ARE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ARE IN THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
CAA/LOW LEVEL DRYING IS WORKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AT THIS
TIME. A QUICK LOOK AT UPSTREAM RAOBS REVEALS THIS AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE CWA IS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT AGL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE LOW 70S DRYING OUT INTO THE UPPER
50S TO UPPER 60S AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
THE UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM
IS LIFTING OUT OF COLORADO THIS MORNING. RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH IT CONSISTING OF A MIX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
TRUDGING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND WILL BE BRINGING
GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO...AT THE VERY LEAST...THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
LIMITED MODEL-PROGGED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS THE ONLY
CONCERN AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH WOULD BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
ONCE THAT SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN TAKE UP
OPPOSING SIDES OF THE ISLE ON WEATHER OR NOT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
QUICKLY RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT /ECMWF/ OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY /GFS/. OPTED TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW HAS A CHANCE TO TAKE UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE CWA BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AHEAD
OF FROPA AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35 TO 40 KNOTS...SO THE ONLY QUESTION
MARK REMAINING IS SHORT-WAVE TIMING.
FINALLY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE PROGGING A FAIRLY
POTENT-LOOKING UPPER SYSTEM TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. 85+KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET SUPPORT SHOWS UP OVER THE CWA /LEFT EXIT REGION/ ALONG WITH
MODEL PROGGED ML CAPE OVER 3500J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. ALBEIT DAY 5 AND STILL A GOOD WAYS OFF...EARLY NEXT
WEEK CURRENTLY HOLDS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR INCLUDING SVR WX
ACTIVITY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT
DOWN NORTH AND EAST OF THIS CWA...ALLOWING OF A PERSISTENT EAST OR
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND RATHER PLEASANT FOR EARLY
AUGUST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS COLD FROPA ON
SATURDAY/NIGHT WILL ONLY REINFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...KEEPING ALL THE SUPER HOT LOW LEVEL AIR BOTTLED UP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA.
DORN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER KOMA AND KLNK TOWARDS MORNING AS RH VALUES
REACH 100 PERCENT BRIEFLY. NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD REDUCTION TO MVFR VSBY...HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
AREAS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINALS AT KOMA AND KLNK AND WILL MENTION
IN A TEMPO GROUP. KOFK HAS A DEW POINT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH NO
THREAT FOR FOG AT THIS MOMENT. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY
BURN OFF. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS DEVELOPING AND WILL START TO SEE
MORE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MASEK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$