FXUS63 KOAX 080829
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
329 AM CDT MON AUG 8 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEB EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASE IS LIKELY TIED THE WEAK WAA
NOTED AROUND 700MB AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL WORD
AS SUCH IN THE FORECAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN POTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
INITIATE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST...REMAINING IN AN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FASHION...ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
THROUGH THE EVENING. A COUPLE OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE AS
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH NO REAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM WYOMING THROUGH NEBRASKA. SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL COME WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO EASTERN NEB AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITY LEVELS. IN FACT LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. ALL IN ALL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT
KLNK AND PROBABLY KOMA AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CHANCES ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER AT KOFK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES SEEM
TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS AFTERNOON THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND FOR NOW EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MILLER