FXUS63 KOAX 090815
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 AM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011
.DISCUSSION...
VERY PLEASANT TEMPS /WITH HIGHS OF 8O TO 85 DEGREES/ ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN THE MISSOURI VALLEY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING VERY COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S TO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ENTER THE PICTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES EAST FROM WYOMING INTO
NEBRASKA. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND THEN
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AGAIN...OPERATIONAL MODELS POINT TO BEST WAA AND FORCING TO REMAIN
GENERALLY FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE THIS POTENTIALLY BEING A LITTLE
MORE NORTH AND EAST. SO DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS BASED ON THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR FAR WESTERN POTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AROUND NELIGH...SOUTH THROUGH ALBION...COLUMBUS...SEWARD...LINCOLN
AND BEATRICE AREAS. KEPT THE GOING LOW END CHANCE AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTH AND EAST OF THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS QUITE
A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD TEMPS
DOWN...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SEEM REASONABLE. ANY
PRECIP WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT
TEMPERATURE WISE.
SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...AND SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL HELP ENSURE THE CONTINUED COMFORTABLE TEMPS.
PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES
FOR MORE SHWRS/TSTMS. ECMWF HINTING AT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPS POSSIBLE
TO FOLLOW BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SECONDARY PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR...WELL REPRESENTED IN THE 925/85H THETAE FIELDS...
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. EXPECT ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTION TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF TERMINALS FOCUSED ALONG BETTER
INSTABILITY AXIS. MID/HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONV DEBRIS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING AFTN/EVENING HRS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CANNON