FXUS63 KOAX 242009
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MORNING...RANGING MAINLY IN THE 50S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL KEEP OUR AREA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS RATHER UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC SHRTWVS PASS
THROUGH.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO OUR
EAST...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL DRAW DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD WITH DEW
POINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF THE
REGION.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET TO OUR WEST
AND APPROACHING SHRTWV ENERGY SHOULD SPARK A FEW ELEVATED STORMS
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST. SFC BASED CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES RATHER MODEST IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT...SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AND BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET SETS BACK UP
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING BACK OVER THE REGION. STRONG WAA
EXPECTED AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH ON SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY
OF LIFT EXPECTED TO TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXCEEDS 40 KTS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO ZONE IN ON THIS AND FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
INCREASING POPS...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MONDAY IS LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER DRY DAY
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS ACTIVITY. NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
EVENT POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD MAINLY IN THE 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH 12Z. RESULT IS CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KTS OVER SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE
AROUND/AFTER 00Z...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY
TO THE EAST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99