FXUS63 KOAX 200811
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY - MONDAY:
ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO
STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THIS MORNING AFFECTING MAINLY
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND MAY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE STILL BEING
TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION ALOFT. THOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERCOME BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN
MO/NORTHEASTERN KS. HAVE MAINTAINED FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THESE NEED TO BE LOWERED AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEGINS TO
DOMINATE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE A QUIET SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELS THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT BUT THINK
THAT WESTERN ZONES WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY.
WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND MODEST COOL ADVECTION
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES TODAY
RELATIVELY COOL. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES REACHING AROUND 80 DEGREES OR SO. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM 5 - 10 DEGREES SUNDAY AS CLOUDS THIN OUT AND WINDS SHIFT
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY POSE A CHALLENGE AS WARM ADVECTION COMPETES WITH CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION. NONE-THE-LESS...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S
THROUGHOUT THE REGION BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST IS VERY REAL
DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE AND WHEN THE
BULK OF IT STARTS.
TUESDAY - FRIDAY:
THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT THE PRECIPITATION FOR
MONDAY - TUESDAY MORNING...WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE
UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND
BROADER RIDGING EXPANDING MORE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES PREVAILING INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CDB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL FROM
10Z-14Z FOR KLNK AND KOMA. -SHRA ALSO POSSIBLE TIL 00Z/20TH...
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION ATTM. SFC WINDS
FCST TO BE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY AOB 10KTS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
ROBERG
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$