FXUS63 KOAX 152111
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
411 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
A COUPLE OF IMPULSES SEEN MOVING EAST ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CENTRAL KS
INTO EASTERN NEB TO BE THE STRONGEST JET AXIS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WITH LOWEST COND PRESS DEF OVER SE NEB AND SW IA...AND WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT. SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE COMPARED TO
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS BASED MORE ON TRENDING THE IMPULSE FROM WATER
VAPOR. LATE TONIGHT...WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S AND SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HOLD MOISTURE UP...PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS IS FORECAST AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 60S. SHOWERS WILL STIR UP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DID NOT MENTION WHERE POPS WERE THE HIGHEST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. VIGOROUS
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF NEBRASKA BY
06Z WEDNEDSDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z WHEN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
EAST-WEST FRONT STALLS OUT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS WHILE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
DURING IN THE DAY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SO SLIGHT POPS IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST. AFTER A TRANQUIL DAY ON THURSDAY...BY THURSDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CREATE
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY GIVING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF STORMS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z ISSUANCE.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER TONIGHT...AND SHOULD
COMBINE WITH A LOW LEVEL JET TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPACT EXPECTED AT KLNK AND KOMA...AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP.
FURTHER NORTH...FOR KOFK...JET STILL DECENT...HOWEVER REMOVED FROM
THE BEST LIFT. THUS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD DEW PTS IN THE 60S...AS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING ALSO INTO THE
60S...EXPECT SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AND/OR STRATUS IN THE MORNING
HOURS. ANY RAIN MAY LIFT THE VSBY OR CIGS TEMPORALLY
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED DURING
THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SMITH/MASEK