FXUS63 KOAX 232031
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY...GENERATING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND A NICE OUTFLOW THAT MOVED THROUGH
OMAHA. THIS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT
READINGS STILL CLIMBED ABOVE 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH A 78 DEGREE
DEWPOINT HERE IN VALLEY. HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED 100 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
WITH CAP HOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...THINK THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH OMAHA AND POINTS SOUTH.
HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...PRECIPITATION
WILL QUICKLY DRY UP.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT...THE MOST NOTICEABLE AFFECT OF
THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER AIR...WITH LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE EXITING TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL USHER IN LOWER DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO WORK
BACK NORTH. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
DAY...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THINGS BECOME A BUT
MORE INTRIGUING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
PROFILE IMPROVES WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 30 KTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON POSITIONING OF THE
DEEPEST AND STRONGEST SHEAR...WITH THE SRF RUN A GOOD COMPROMISE
FOR NOW. IN ADDITION...SHRTWV ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SEND A BIT OF ENERGY SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY EARLY FRIDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED FOR THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
EXIT BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET SETS BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT...SENDING YET ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE REGION AS ANOTHER
SHRTWV TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER
ROLLING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON EVENING.
CONDITIONS THEN DRY OUT AS THIS LAST WAVE SWEEPS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK.
NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS RUNNING AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 80S DURING THE DAY WITH
60S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
WITH MOISTURE AND HEAT CREATING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...SHRA HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HAVE ADDED A CB MENTION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD TSRA TO DEVELOP. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WILL BRING
A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
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