FXUS63 KOAX 130133
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
833 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011
.UPDATE...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
WINDS ALREADY DECOUPLING...OPTED TO BRING DOWN WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.
KAS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI TODAY...AND
TAKEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WITH IT. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER EXPECT THE ALREADY DEVELOPED LINE OVER NE KS TO BE
THE MAIN LINE. MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW ROTATING ACROSS N DAKOTA
WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME SHOWERS OVER S DAKOTA. NAM AND THE GFS DO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT...LESS THAN 5 HUNDREDTHS IN THE FAR NRN ZONES...BUT LIKE THE
ECMWF/RUC WHICH IS DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE AREA IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS SEASONALLY
COOL IN THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATES THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY AND THEN
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS SHORT WAVES
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG WAVE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE RIDERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER LONG RANGE MODELS IN
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
ONGOING FORECAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER
THE WEEKEND FOR MORE ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
00Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT DRY AIR ADVECTING IN MAY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MASEK/DEE/KAS