FXUS63 KOAX 041537
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1037 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011
.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND PRODUCTS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS...UPPED POPS A BIT IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET A BIT OF SUNSHINE
TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER. NUDGED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO HERE AND THERE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHERWISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE HIGH TEMPS AMID WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
AND SCT/NUM COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENTLY...UNDER A CLOUDY SKY...PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS WORKING UP THROUGH THE SWRN
ZONES THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S THIS
MORNING.
MID-LEVEL UPPER WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED...IN PARTICULAR...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
BETWEEN REGIONAL SFC OBS SUGGESTING UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATED IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO EARLY THIS MORNING AND GFS
PROGGED PWATS BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.25 INCHES IN PLACE TODAY AND THE
SERN ZONES BEING INCLUDED IN THE LATEST DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK...DECIDED TO INCORPORATE HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION IN THE WX
GRIDS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
THE GEM/EC AND GFS ALL SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION /HARD TO DEPICT IN
WATER VAPOR/ WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW AND OVER THIS AREA ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA...SO CONTINUED SOME
LOW END POPS FOR FRIDAY. THESE LOW END POPS MAY NEED BUMPED UP IF
THESE SOLUTIONS ALL CONTINUE TO PING FRIDAY IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR OVER THIS CWA STILL SHOWING
UP SATURDAY AND MONDAY...SO CONTINUED TO POLISH THOSE TIMEFRAMES
WITH HIGHEST MEASURABLE POPS.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS IN 24 HOURS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BEING IMPACTED BY COOL
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW /925HPA TEMPS BETWEEN +18C AND +25C/
WHICH TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S THROUGH UPPER 80S.
DORN
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. SHORT RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING GREATLY ON HANDLING TIMING
AND EXTENT OF CURRENT PRECIP SHIELD. HOWEVER...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WILL EFFECT THE KLNK AND LIKELY INTO
THE KOMA TERMINAL BEFORE THIS MORNING. LESS CONFIDENCE THE ACTIVITY
WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS KOFK...WITH ONLY A TEMPO GROUP INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME. CHANCE FOR RAIN DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MASEK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
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