FXUS63 KOAX 062044
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
344 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
NOT MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR GOOD SURFACE HEATING. THIS SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ERODE WHAT CAP WE
HAVE. BEST UPPER SUPPORT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
UPPER SUPPORT STILL POINTS TO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING
THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE SUN UP. INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW
TO ADD SEVERE WORDING TO THE PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...BUT WILL STILL BE LOW END CHANCE
POPS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE INCREASED POPS AREA WIDE...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON GOING LIKELY
WORDING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO
AGREEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER
IS A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY WINDS...ANY ELEVATED STORM COULD BRING
LARGE HAIL...AND FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN WITH ANY TRAINING STORMS.
IN THE FAST MOVING FLOW...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...BUT WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
ALL SITES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AREA WIDE AFTER 20Z...BUT MAIN
THREAT WILL BE BE WITH MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES FOR KOFK BETWEEN 22Z AND
02Z...KOMA 03Z TO 07Z...AND KLNK 04Z TO 08Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE STORMS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SENA/NIPPER