FXUS63 KOAX 132019
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
319 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
REINFORCING COLD FRONT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA...IN
KS/MO...TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PLAINS.
ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR A GOOD CU FIELD OVER
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RESULTING WEATHER IS ONE OF THE MORE
PLEASANT WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 AND DEW
POINTS NEAR 60...HOWEVER A LITTLE BREEZY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECT TOMORROW TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE WINDS...AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE HIGH
PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. MEANWHILE THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RETURN
THE CWA BACK INTO AN ACTIVE PATTERN. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUSTAIN AN MCS
WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TRICKY FOR MONDAY AS
CLOUD COVER EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSE TO
LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS...NEAR 80...HOWEVER COULD SEE LOWER AND
POSSIBLY MID 80S IF FIRST MCS DIES OFF EARLY WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT WARM UP FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS LIKELY TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
MODELS STRUGGLING WITH EXTENT OF COVERAGE AND TIMING. WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND EXPECT TO
INCREASE AS TIMING BECOMES BETTER.
POST FRONT...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. STILL MAY SEE SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE TO THE NORTH OF
THE RIDGE...SO HAVE NOT GONE TOTALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
ANYTHING REACHES THE GROUND IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. STILL TO SEE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS NEAR THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY HOLD SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MORE SURFACE MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
13/18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD. HOWEVER...HAVE
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP BTWN 10Z-13Z FOR IFR VSBY FROM FOG AT OMA.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MASEK/DEE