FXUS63 KOAX 251944
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
244 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUD POSSIBILITIES TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHARP SHORTWV TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG MO RIVER SHOULD SHOVE
MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF FCST AREA BY 00Z ALTHOUGH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
DVLPG UPSTREAM NEAR EDGE OF COOL POOL ALOFT/WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
COULD CLIP PARTS OF ERN ZONES EARLY. OTHERWISE FOG/PATCHY DRIZZLE
STILL SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TNGT AND WAS
LEFT IN FCST AS TEMPS DROP INTO 40S PER GUIDANCE/PREV FORECAST
WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE. POCKET OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE PER BUFKIT
COULD KEEP/ALLOW A FEW CIGS TO DVLP MAINLY SRN 1/2 INTO MIDDAY
SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTN. MEX NUMBERS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS AND AGAIN LTL/NO CHANGES FM PREV FCST.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH LITTLE...BY CURRENT
INDICATIONS ANYWAY...IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. SHORTWV ENERGY MOVG ALONG
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SWD THRU
CWA MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...RIDGING AHEAD OF IT WILL ALLOW MILD
TEMPS TO PUSH INTO NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA AND LTL/NO COOLING
EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT TUE FOR CWA. EVEN WARMER TEMPS STILL ON TAP
WED AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS NEWD TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY AS A
WEAKER WAVE TRACKS EVEN FARTHER N ACROSS SRN CANADA...PER
PREFERRED GFS. AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD EVEN FARTHER BUT
THE INTERCONNECTED AMPLITUDE...POSITION OF ITS AXIS AND SHORTWV
ENERGY DIGGING INTO ERN U.S. COULD MEAN DIFFERENCE IN A CATEGORY
OR SO OF 850 MB TEMPS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SW SFC RIDGE BUILDS DUE
TO UPPER AMPLITUDE OF RIDGE + ERN U.S. ENERGY DETAILS.
NONETHELESS...E COMPONENT TO SFC WNDS COULD LIMIT MIXING SO ATTM
KEPT READINGS CLOSE TO PREV FORECAST GENERALLY IN 70-75 DEGREE
RANGE FOR EXTENDED...BUT COULD SEE FUTURE RUNS SUPPORTING TEMPS A
CATEGORY EITHER WAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME WITH AREA OF
RW-/TRW PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM.
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH
CLEARING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG
COMES INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH UNDER
SURFACE RIDGE. HAVE INCLUDED SOME FOG AT ALL THREE SITES WITH KOMA
AND KLNK EXPECTED TO HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/FOBERT