FXUS63 KOAX 250814
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 AM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS COVERAGE/CHANCE OF PCPN TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST. FLOW HAD AMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT SINCE 00Z...AS 500 MB RIDGE
CONTINUED TO BUILD AND HEIGHTS WERE FALLING ACROSS THE PLAINS. TSTMS
ARE ONGOING AS OF 08Z. THEY STARTED OUT FAIRLY ISOLATED A LITTLE
BEFORE 04Z IN OUR FAR WRN ZONES. STORMS WERE OCCURRING WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE 305-310K LAYER...ON NOSE OF A 40-50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN OCCLUDED FRONT OR SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING SWD FROM THE DKTS INTO LOW PRES OVER SWRN NE. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD TO NEAR THE SERN NE/NERN KS BORDER AREA BY EARLY
THIS AFTN AND SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE EWD INTO ERN NE. PCPN SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO TREND MORE TO
AREAS EAST OF WIND SHIFT THIS AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FOR MOST
AREAS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. FAR SWRN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME LOWER
70S...BUT REST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 60S.
SOME ISOLD LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING...BUT THE
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN SEEM LOW. HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WILL
BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT AND ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. MOST SPOTS
TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS INTO SUNDAY MORNING
JUST YET...BUT MAY NEED TO WITH LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE AT 500 MB DURING THE EARLY AND MID PART OF THE WEEK
WITH RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...AND WOULD SUGGEST A WARM SCENARIO.
BUT FAIRLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
WARMING EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY. SOME 80S APPEAR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
SYNOPSIS...AREA OF TSRA MOVING SEWD OVER ERN NEB THIS MORNING ASSOC
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FM SFC LOW CENTERED IN CNTRL NEB.
ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSRA OVER ERN SD ALONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
SE. AVN CONCERNS PRETTY MUCH FOCUSED ON EARLY PD CONVECTION
ACTIVITY...THEN MVFR CIGS SETTLING IN. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR ALL TERMINALS THRU ABOUT 14Z. AFT 14Z...WARM AIR ADVECTION THRU
5KFT LYR INCREASES THIS AFTN AND EXPECT MVFR CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT
AT ALL SITES THRU 26/00Z. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIRMASS LOWER LYRS
FILTERS INTO REGION AND SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE