FXUS63 KOAX 242003
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010
.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY SHOWED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHARPENING UP AS IT
CROSSES CNTRL MT WITH DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF IT EXTDG SEWD
INTO CNTRL NEBR. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LATE TNGT/SAT MORNING
IN 305-310 K SFC/STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD
AID IN INCREASING CLOUDS/PCPN LATE TNGT. THUS BOOSTED POPS
SOME...SPCLY CNTRL/NERN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH INITIAL DRYNESS OF
ATMOSPHERE LEFT TIMING ALONE WITH NO MENTION UNTIL AFT 06Z AS SFC
HIGH/H85 FRONT HAS PUSHED LOW LVL MOISTURE S OF KS. LIFT IS
DECENT BUT ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SEEMS NARROW...TIMING AND
DISTANCE WISE...MAKING STRENGTH OF STORMS QUESTIONABLE...BUT PRBLY
ENOUGH TO KEEP MAIN PCPN TYPE TSTMS LATE TNGT/SAT MORNING. MID LVL
LAPSE RATES FLATTEN OUT ON SAT AND SFC BASED CONVECTION
QUESTIONABLE SINCE SFC FRONT LIKELY WILL BE PRESSING S OF CWA BY
MID AFTN AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE ERN ZONES...SO WL LEAVE
SHOWERS AS PREDOMINATE PTYPE SAT AFTN W/ISOLD TSTMS. REGARDING
TEMPS...SINCE IT APPEARS CLOUDS WON/T INCREASE E/NE ZONES TILL
LATE DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN DRYNESS OF CURRENT AIRMASS
BUT GENERALLY NO BIG CHANGES. CLOUDS/LINGERING PCPN ON SATURDAY
COULD LIMIT HEATING...SPLCY FAR ERN ZONES...AND MAX TEMPS WERE
TRIMMED A BIT.
AFTER THAT TEMPERATURES MAIN CONCERN AS SEVERAL FRONTS/WIND SHIFTS
CROSS PLAINS. WARMUP PROBABLY SLOWER TO DVLP ON SUNDAY THAN NAM
SUGGESTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS PREFERRED. USED A BLEND OF PREV
FCST/00Z GFS MEX TEMPS FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK BUT IT WAS NOTED THAT
UPPER HGTS FM WED-FRI PER 12Z GFS/ECMWF REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND
AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL COOLING COULD BE MINIMAL AND WAS REFLECTED
IN 12Z MEX NUMBERS. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BOOST MAX TEMPS WED WHERE
FRONTAL TIMING/H85 TEMPS COULD ALLOW READINGS TO CROSS 80 MANY
AREAS. ATTM JUST BUMPED THEM UP TO AROUND 80. ALSO LEFT EACH FROPA
DRY AFTER SAT AS MAIN FORCING IS FOCUSED AWAY FM CWA WITH MOISTURE
MINIMAL ACROSS FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH NEXT SURFACE
FRONT AND DEEPENING UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z.
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY LIKELY KOFK AND KOMA 09Z-18Z. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST KLNK MAY STAY ON SRN EDGE OF LOWER CIGS AND
PRECIP.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/FOBERT