FXUS63 KOAX 070824
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 AM CDT THU OCT 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
FROM MID 30S ACROSS OUR NORTH TO THE MID 50S ACROSS OUR SOUTH. THE
SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF THE CWA BY 18Z
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DESPITE 850MB WAA. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. STRONG
850MB WAA AND A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AMPLE MIXING FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM EACH MODEL
RUN WITH NEW PROGS BRINGING NERN NEB INTO THE +22 C RANGE. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND THAT SEEMS
A BIT CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT. MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
RECORD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AT OMA.
WAA PATTERN COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING TO PRODUCE A FEW SCT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY. UPPER LOW WL APPROACH THE
CNTRL PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING SMALL POPS GOING IN ALL AREAS FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY BOTH SAT AND SUN. WL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED
TSTMS WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/DEWALD