FXUS63 KOAX 072005
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT THU OCT 7 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WEEKEND
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS AFTN SHOWED CLOSED LOW OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUED TO OPEN UP.
BEST 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z WERE FROM BC CANADA DOWN INTO WA...
OR ID AND WRN MT. A RIDGE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. BUT
THAT WAS STARTING TO WEAKEN.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE...BUT THEN CLOSING OFF AGAIN AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS. GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...WITH THE
12Z GFS SEEMING TO BE TOO FAST WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF 500 MB LOW.
PCPN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LEFT SOME LOW
POPS IN OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES FOR 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO INCLUDE AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AT THE POINT
IT APPEARS PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP BEST FOR PCPN ACROSS NERN NE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY 85 TO 90. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S WITH SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER (BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). HIGHS
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH CLOSED LOW. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER IN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER IN MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. BELIEVE THE
ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE IN THIS SITUATION. THEREFORE...CLOUDS AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. THEN AN
UPSTREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP KICK UPPER LOW OUT OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO ALLOW A COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...DEE