FXUS63 KOAX 122021
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN SHORTER TERM AS TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.
FIRST WAVE DROPPING SE IS LARGER AND FARTHER SW OF THE TWO AND
DOES PROVIDE MODEST QG FORCING TNGT...MAINLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE DVLPG AHEAD OF REINFORCING COOL FRONT IN SWRN
IA AS OF 19Z AND SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER A BIT PAST 00Z FAR
SERN ZONES WHERE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTS THRU 03Z
ACCORDING TO NAM. OTHERWISE TROUGH WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH
LTL/NO CHANGES MADE TO PREV FCST WHICH REMAINS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE TO AT LEAST 850 MB ON WED WITH
SUNSHINE AND BRISK NW WINDS...850 MB TEMPS COOL ENOUGH SO MOST
READINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN 60S.
FEEL AIRMASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH ON WED TO ALLOW
READINGS TO FALL CLOSER TO COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WED NGT DESPITE
RETURN FLOW DVLPG LATE. ADJUSTED MOST MIN TEMPS LOWER. DECENT WARM
ADVCTN...LOW DWPTS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW STRONG MIXING ON THU
AS SECOND TROUGH DROPS SE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. WARMING COULD
BE GIVEN A EXTRA BOOST NEAR BOUNDARY WHICH WL SHOULD BE CROSSING
INTO SERN ZONES AT MAX HEATING. MID/UPPER 70S APPEAR LIKELY MOST
AREAS BUT WOULDN/T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE CROSS 80 NEAR
BOUNDARY.
WEAK COOL ADVCTN SENT SWWD ACROSS CWA THU NGT/EARLY FRI AS SECOND
TROUGH CROSSES GRTLKS...BUT SINCE TRACK OF SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER E...AFFECTS SHOULD BE LESS ACROSS THE CWA. THUS MOST OF
THE CWA ALREADY BEGINS WARM ADVCTN FRIDAY AFTN. HOWEVER...DID
TRIM BACK TEMPS A BIT THU NGT/FRI...MAINLY ERN ZONES...TO REFLECT
COOL ADVCTN THU NGT AND WEAKER WARM ADVCTN/MIXING ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PATTERN CHANGE
BRINGING COOLER AND POSSIBLY RAINY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL US WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHORT-LIVED ZONAL
PATTERN AS WRN TROUGHING DEVELOPS. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER IN AMPLITUDE
OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH/LOW...WITH GFS PROVIDING A
WEAKER/FASTER PATTERN THAT BRINGS RAIN EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF.
BOTH SOLUTIONS DEVELOP NWRLY FLOW OVER THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE
NUDGED TEMPS UP ON SATURDAY...AND KEPT TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY AS WELL...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND WRLY TO SWRLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AROUND
MONDAY/TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE SOLUTION...WITH SHARPLY COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND IT. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF PRECIP
ALONG FRONT AS WELL AS ITS TIMING...AND HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DOES APPEAR THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH COOL NWRLY FLOW...AND HAVE DROPPED
TEMPS BACK FOR TUESDAY AND KEPT OUT PRECIP MENTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
12Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD. SFC GRADIENT WL RELAX THIS
EVENING BRINGING NORTHWEST SFC WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/MAYES/KERN