FXUS63 KOAX 112015
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW CENTER
OF LOW CIRCULATION OVER CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON. VORT LOBE
PINWHEELING WEST OVER THE CWA IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAS LED TO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. DO
EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AIDED
BY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER MEAGER.
SMALL POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE SO WL LEAVE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS IS. TEMPERATURES WL BE TOUGH WITH MIXING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BUMP TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SRN
CWA. CAA WL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY BY 12Z ACROSS THE NORTH SO TEMPS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WED AND
THUR KEEPING TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE.
KERN
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THEN
A CHC OF RAIN FOR MONDAY.
A WEAK COOL FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE COOLING WILL BE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL DIP BACK INTO THE 30S AND
40S. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN FOR
FRIDAY WITH THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SATURDAY...MEANWHILE A SFC
FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. EXPECT MILD TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE 70S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THE FRONT HAS A
STRONGER SOUTHWARD PUSH...THERE COULD BE MORE 60S IN THE NORTH. THE
NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES INTO THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY
WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
UPPER LOW OVR KS WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SEWD TDA/TNGT AS A STRONG
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE RACES ALONG U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND LOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY S/SE OF KLNK/KOMA
ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS...MOSTLY ABOVE 5000 FEET...WILL PERSIST TILL
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING. UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVG ACROSS NRN PLAINS
WILL BRING CDFNT AND INCREASING NW SFC WINDS TO TAF SITES TOWARD END
OF 11/18Z TAF VALID PD...GENERALLY AFT 12/15Z OR SO. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD ACCOMPANY CDFNT WHICH WILL BE ASSESSED IN LATER TAF FORECASTS.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/ZAPOTOCNY/CHERMOK