FXUS63 KOAX 201922
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
222 PM CDT WED OCT 20 2010
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF SUNNY SKIES BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
MOVE BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THOSE RAIN CHANCES AND
AFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT
INTO THE PLAINS...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY.
BEFORE THEN...STRONG JET STREAK WAS DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT INTO OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT.
AFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS SPILL INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND
THOSE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BELOW 40 IN MUCH OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. A COOL START AND MINIMAL MIXING WILL OFFSET NEARLY FULL
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST AREAS.
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER
LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO RETURN AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN WESTERN
KANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN THIS MORNING...MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS IN SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO
NEBRASKA AND IOWA. INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER DIFFLUENT
FLOW AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SPARK AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN OUR SOUTH SOMETIME FRIDAY. INSTABILITY INCREASES MARKEDLY
FRIDAY AS WELL...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE FROM TIME TO TIME...AND WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN PUSHING HIGHS HIGHER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND. STILL WENT BELOW
MAV/MET NUMBERS BUT DID NUDGE HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AND A SHOWERY DAY LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
AS LOW ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN BY
GFS ON SATURDAY...BUT CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT SETTLES OVERHEAD. SO
IMPLIED FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED THUNDER
MENTION IS STILL WARRANTED. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S GIVEN CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...
MINIMAL MIXING AND COLD CORE ALOFT.
DERGAN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT WE CONTINUE TO
LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF. BY SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WL BE OVER ERN NEB PUTTING BEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY...SOME WRAP AROUND ACTIVITY
COULD PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN
END SLOWLY LATE IN THE DAY. RETURN FLOW WL SET UP QUICKLY ON
MONDAY...MAKING TEMP FORECAST QUITE CHALLENGING AS WE COULD SEE A
QUICK WARM UP. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
MON NIGHT/TUE AIDED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING OUT OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
REBECCA
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA TONIGHT INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$