FXUS63 KOAX 210805
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LATE WEEK SYSTEM
LOOMING IN THE SOUTHWEST. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES REX BLOCK PATTERN IN THE WRN US...WITH LOW CENTERED NEAR
THE AZ/CA BORDER AND HIGH CENTERED AROUND ID...THOUGH PATTERN IS
STARTING TO COLLAPSE AS LOW SLIDES EASTWARD. UPPER LOW WAS ALSO IN
PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY. FAST NWRLY FLOW WAS CUTTING ACROSS THE N
CNTRL US...WITH 125-140KT JET STREAK FROM MB/SASK INTO MN. SURFACE
HIGH AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN SERN SD...WITH RIDGING FROM NWRN ND
THROUGH ERN KS.
WILL HAVE ONE MORE QUIET DAY BEFORE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND SOME
CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY. EJECTING UPPER LOW WILL OPEN AND WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FROM NM THROUGH NEB AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. EXPECT SHRA TO REACH THE SRN CWA FRIDAY MORNING
AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
ENTER THE WRN CWA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING STRONG
TSRA OR SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE. SFC LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH INDICATIONS OF A LIKELY DRY SLOT FOR SOME OR
ALL OF THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CWA. HAVE
DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE SOUTH. AXIS OF INSTABILITY MAY CLIP THE SERNMOST CWA...BUT BULK
OF THE TSRA ACTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA ON
SATURDAY ALONG THE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS IOWA AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING FROM KS INTO MO. WRAPAROUND RAIN IS PROGGED
TO LINGER IN THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A RESPITE ON SUNDAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF...WITH A DECENT MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY-MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE SRN LOW REMAIN MODERATE.
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRAGGING
A STRONG COLD PUSH INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS DISAGREE ON SRN
EXTENT OF PRECIP...AND HAVE LEFT POPS AS SCHC MONDAY AND CHC MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH NO POPS REMAINING ON TUESDAY AS SYSTEM PUSHES WELL
EAST. EXPECT A COLD RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD
PUSH...AND THOUGH IT IS OUT OF THE PERIODS MODIFIED IN THIS
FORECAST...SHOULD SEE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. IN
OTHER WORDS...FALL FINALLY WILL ARRIVE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY TURN
SERLY THIS AFTN AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER LOWER MO VALLEY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
REGION BEYOND TAF FORECAST VALID TIMEFRAME...ON FRI/SAT...BUT SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS COULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER TAF SITES IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM TOWARD 22/06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MAYES/CHERMOK