FXUS63 KOAX 180750
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010
.DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO KEEP PRECIP AT
BAY. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM MT/ND BORDER THROUGH ERN WY...WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
CNTRL US OTHERWISE. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WAS DEVELOPING IN THE PAC
NW TO WRN CANADA...WITH LOW OFFSHORE OF SRN CA. 850MB MOISTURE WAS
MEAGER IN THE CNTRL US...WITH A SMALL AREA OF 4C+ DEWPOINTS IN TX/LA
BUT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10C IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. SURFACE
LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN SWRN CO/OK PANHANDLE/NERN NM...WITH WARM
FRONT FEATURE EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO NRN MO.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LIES IN IMAPCT OF SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TODAY ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER...THEN RAIN POTENTIAL FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HAVE
REMOVED PRECIP MENTION FROM FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS REGIONAL
00Z RAOBS REMAIN VERY DRY AT LOWER LEVELS...WITH CIGS STRUGGLING TO
GET BELOW 8-10KFT EVEN IN SD/MN WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. WILL SEE
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND CIRRUS TODAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER WARMING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL US TUES AND
WED...WITH A WEAK TROUGH BETWEEN. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
NWRLY AS NWRN US RIDGING DEVELOPS...WITH CUTOFF SWRN US LOW ALSO
DEEPENING. DESPITE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL SEE MODERATING MID-LEVEL
TEMPS THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY...DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE
ERN PACIFIC WILL HELP NUDGE CUTOFF LOW OUT INTO THE
PLAINS...WEAKENING AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS
INDICATE ESSENTIALLY NO ELEVATED INSTABILITY FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING WELL SOUTH IN KS/MO.
GIVEN CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS MODEL INDICATIONS THAT CWA WILL NOT BE IN
AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THE SYSTEM. LATER FORECASTS MAY NUDGE THUNDER BACK INTO THE
SERNMOST CWA IF THE SYSTEM EJECTS FARTHER WEST THAN PROGGED...BUT
DEFAULT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WITH CURRENT PROGGED TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD YIELD A NO-THUNDER FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
BKN MID TO HIGH LVL CLD DECK WL CONT THRU THE MRNG BEFORE SHIFTING
SWD THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NRLY OR NERLY WINDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MAYES/BOUSTEAD