FXUS63 KOAX 172020
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
320 PM CDT SUN OCT 17 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES...AND THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS A SHORTWAVE TROF OVR MT AND A DEEPER
MID LEVEL TROF OF THE WEST COAST WILL WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACRS
THE NRN PLAINS AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVR THE SRN U.S. A FEW
LIGHTNING STROKES WERE NOTED OVR NORTH DAKOTA AND MT WITH THAT
SHORT WAVE AND QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STROKES OVR NM/AZ/SRN UT INTO
CA WITH THAT APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROF. PER THE WSR-88D
MOSAICS...THE CLOSEST RAIN WAS NORTH OF HURON SD AND RAINFALL
REACHING THE GROUND WAS PATCHY WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
DAKOTAS INTO MN OVERNIGHT. RH IS LIMITED...SO ANY PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND WOULD BE LIGHT. AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN COULD SEE SOME
ECHOES ALOFT OR A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR A SHOWER WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACRS THE SRN
PORTION OF THE CWA. DECREASING CLOUDS...THEN COOL FOR MONDAY. THE
NAM WAS HINTING AT SOME BACK DOOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER
THE 18Z RUN IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS AND MORE LIKE THE
SREF/GFS...WITH MODERATING TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPS TUESDAY AND WED WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AND WARMER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAIN FCST PROBLEM REVOLVES AROUND UPR LO THAT IS EXPCD TO EJECT OUT
OF SWRN CONUS STARTING ON FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLNS...EXCEPT REMAINS FASTER EJECTING OUT THE
LOW AND ALSO IS FURTHER SOUTH IN PLACEMENT ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WILL REMAIN WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF PRCIPITATION STARTING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF PRODUCE MU CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 800 J/KG...WHICH IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE. THEREFORE HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 70S THURSDAY TO MID TO
UPR 60S FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY. LOWS ARE EXPCD TO BE IN THE 40S WITH
SOME UPR 30S NW WED NGT/THU MRNG.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/SMITH/DEE