FXUS63 KOAX 190802
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH NEXT POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES BROAD NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL US...WITH TROUGH
DEEPENING IN THE EAST AND RIDGE STRENGTHENING IN THE WEST...AND WITH
A CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. MOISTURE REMAINS WELL
SOUTH...WITH 4C+ DEWPOINTS AT 850MB FROM SWRN MO/NRN OK
SOUTHWARD...AND ALSO IN SRN CA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
THERE. AT 07Z...A SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED IN SWRN NEB...WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH LATE WEEK SYSTEM. IN THE
INTERIM...QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. NWRLY FLOW AT
UPPER LEVELS MAY BRING INTERMITTENT CI...ALONG WITH ALTERNATING WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING AND RIDGING. RESULT WILL BE MODERATING TEMPS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPS AT
850MB AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...BALANCED BY INCREASING
SRLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HAVE NUDGED
TEMPS UP IN THE SRN CWA ON THURSDAY AND IN THE NRN CWA ON
FRIDAY...BUT KEPT CHANGES SUBTLE FOR NOW.
SWRN LOW IS PROGGED TO EJECT AND WEAKEN/OPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
FRIDAY-SATURDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING ERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BRINGING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH OPEN GULF AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW...MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST DECENT RAINFALL IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR
SOME OR ALL OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IN THE SRN
CWA. INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS...THOUGH THUNDER IS LIKELY TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. DID KEEP
ISO THUNDER MENTION ON SATURDAY AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES
UNDER UPPER-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS TO TAF SITES
THROUGH 20/06Z AS AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS SRN PLAINS
SPREADING LOWER CLOUDS AND SCT PCPN TO AREAS S OR SW OF AREA.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 19/14Z...COVERAGE APPEARED
IT WOULD BE SPARSE ENOUGH THAT NO MENTION WAS MADE IN 19/06Z TAF
FORECASTS. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SW SFC WINDS TO
TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MAYES/CHERMOK