FXUS63 KOAX 191942
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
242 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
SLIPPING INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WERE DAMPENING FULL INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON AS
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WAS HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD CLIMB A FEW CATEGORIES HIGHER WITH
FULL SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW LEVEL SOUNDINGS. HAVE HIGHS
WEDNESDAY TOPPING 70 ALL AREAS AFTER MORNING LOWS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
A SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S THURSDAY AS MIXING IS
MINIMIZED. COULD ALSO SEE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF EJECTING
UPPER LOW.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO MOISTEN LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW DRIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
SHIELD FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER IT IS STILL LOOKING PROBABLE FOR SHOWERS
IN OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY. ALSO...INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT AS LOW APPROACHES WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS 850 LIFTED INDICES REACH THE -2 TO -4C RANGE
THEN...SO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
TRICKY AS WARM ADVECTION TRIES TO OFFSET THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. DID NOT STRAY FROM GOING FORECAST OF UPPER 60S...BUT
COULD SEE A LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPS IF CLOUDS ARE NOT AS THICK AS
ADVERTISED.
DERGAN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY...ALONG
WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR
POSSIBLE. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
NEXT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS RIGHT ON ITS
HEALS. THIS SHOULD DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE DIFFERING IN THE TIMING WITH THE
ECMWF ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER ATTM.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR COND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$