FXUS63 KOAX 240746
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
246 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW VICINITY KOFK AT 7Z SHOULD MOVE TO NCNTRL IA THROUGH
25/00Z. BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE LOW TRACK...OR ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES OF LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA
THIS AFTERNOON AS TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AT PEAK HEATING.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WINDS COULD GO
CALM FOR A SHORT PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES...HOWEVER RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN
QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. POPS INCREASING
DURING THAT PERIOD INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY STILL SEEM
REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH OPTED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS
INSTABILITY SEEMS TO BE LACKING IN OUR AREA...BUT PERHAPS
INCREASES JUST EAST OF THE CWFA BORDER.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SPEEDS EASILY INCREASING TO SUSTAINED 30 MPH AS
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. H85 WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA APPROACH 50 TO
55KTS...AND SHOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS...WITH EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. IN FACT...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED THAT WE WILL BE MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA OF 40 MPH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NORTHERN HALF THE CWFA WITH WIND GUSTS EASILY
APPROACHING 50 MPH. STILL JUST SLIGHTLY BEYOND OUR 48 HOUR WIND FOR
ANY WATCH...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO FOR NOW AND
CONSIDER A WATCH IN LATER FORECAST SHIFTS.
THE CONCERN BEYOND TUESDAY WILL BE WHETHER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY SNEAK INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA. FEEL THAT THE NAM IS TOO FAR SOUTH...AND RELIED ON THE
GFS/ECMWF WHICH KEEPS PRECIP JUST NORTH OF OUR NORTHERN CWFA
BORDER FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
LARGE AREA OF IFR/LIFR CIGS COVERING SD/SRN MN THIS MORNING...JUST N
OF SFC LOW CENTERED IN ERN NEB. MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING LOW CIGS
PIVOTING DOWN BACKSIDE OF EWD MOVING SFC LOW AND ENVELOPING PORTIONS
OF ERN NEB. SFC LOW ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NRN IA BY 18Z...AND EXPECT
SWD MIGRATING LOW CIGS WILL MAINLY AFFECT KOFK/KOMA BTWN 12Z-18Z.
NOT SURE WHETHER LOW DECK WILL MAKE IT TO KLNK...BUT HAVE TEMPO
GROUP THIS MORNING 12Z-14Z IN PLACE JUST IN CASE. ATTM...THINK THAT
NARROW LLVL DRY SLOT ESTABLISHED FM ABOUT N-CNTRL KS TO NE NEB WILL
HELP INHIBIT CIGS FROM GOING BELOW MVFR. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS THAT COND SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 18Z KOFK/KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE