FXUS63 KOAX 241958
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART THE AREA AND ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS
TO THE STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE 170M HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A STRONG FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS TROF. BY 12Z MONDAY...850MB THERMAL RIDGE
WL BE NOSING INTO THE CWA WITH TEMPS AROUND 16-18C. FULL MIXING
POTENTIAL WL LIKELY BE LIMITED WITH SRLY WINDS...BUT SFC TEMPS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE A BIT MORE COMPLEX WITH
THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG MIXING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY COULD SEND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER HOWEVER WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THINK THAT LOWER TO MID 60S
SHOULD BE REASONABLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROF AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AIRMASS SHOULD BE QUICK
TO SATURATE AS PACIFIC MOISTURE QUICKLY SPREADS OVER THE REGION.
FORCING IS QUICK TO MOVE OUT AND MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
MAIN STORY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE STRONG AND
GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS. 850MB WINDS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 45 TO 50 KTS. MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS A BIT TOO LOW
ON SFC WINDS SO HAVE BUMPED THEM UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. WL
HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY AS WE ARE STILL 4 PERIODS OUT. ALSO...THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO COVERAGE AND HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE ANY
HEADLINE SO YET ANOTHER REASON TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT DIFFERENCES BECOME FAIRLY LARGE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS WAS PREFERRED AND SHOWED A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW PATTERN. LITTLE OR NO PCPN IS EXPECTED...SO KEPT POPS AT 14 OR
LESS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE 12Z GFS.
GENERALLY STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
THURSDAY THEN GENERALLY 60S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
SFC LOW PRES IN NW IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH NW
WINDS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES. AN INCREASING SW/W COMPONENT
ALOFT WITH PUSH THE RH OFF TO THE EAST WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AFT 23Z. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS BEGINNING AT 06-09Z THROUGH 12-15Z MONDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS AT 10 TO 20KTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/MILLER/ZAPOTOCNY