FXUS63 KOAX 260738
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
238 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OBVIOUS MAIN ISSUE IS STOUT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.
LATEST SFC OBS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE DROPS AROUND 6MB LAST 3HRS
ACROSS ERN MN/ERN IA/WRN WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW
CENTERED IN SW MN. MEANWHILE...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
CWA AND MOVED INTO IA/WRN MO. SFC LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG
WINDS IS PROGGED TO MOVE LITTLE THRU TODAY WITH A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN/NEB/IA. AREAS
NORTH OF CWA SEEM TO BE MORE AT RISK TO MEET HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE TREMENDOUS MIXING THIS
AFTN. IN PARTICULAR...SREF PROBABILITY FOR WIND EXCEEDING ADV
CRITERIA HIGHEST IN CNTRL SD. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE GOING
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE BEST FIT OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED A FEW LOCATIONS IN KNOX/CEDAR COUNTIES SEE ADV CRITERIA
EXCEEDED FOR A SHORT TIME. AS FOR WEDNESDAY...LATEST SREF SUGGESTING
EVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR MEETING WIND ADV CRITERIA...PARTICULARLY
OVER NRN NEB. PREVIOUS SREF RUNS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS...THUS WILL INTRODUCE WIND ADV. GRADUAL DECREASE THEREAFTER
AS SFC LOW LIFTS TO HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY EVENING AND UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH 00Z AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE
PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS BEFORE
12Z WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS AFTER 12Z. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z.
ALSO OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS NEAR FL020 AND SCATTERED -SHRA WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH 15Z ACROSS ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES. AFTER 15Z
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS NEAR FL035 WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
DEE/SCOTTY